:Product: 19980407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 097 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A FEW SMALL C-CLASS
FLARES, NONE OF WHICH HAD CORRESPONDING OPTICAL REPORTS. THE LARGEST
OF THESE WAS A C1 AT 07/0110Z. FOUR NEW ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED: REGION 8196 (N18W61) EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLAR GROUP;
REGION 8197 (N32E48) LIKEWISE EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLE; 8198
(S28E74) ROTATED AROUND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AS PART OF THE 8194/8195
ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX; AND 8199 (S26W02) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF REGION 8193 (S23E02).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF POTENTIAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY ARE
THE 8193/8199 AREA AND THE COMPLEX COMPRISED OF REGIONS 8194, 8195,
AND 8198.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHOCK OBSERVED BY
ACE SENSORS AT ABOUT 07/1650Z WAS FOLLOWD BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE
RESPONSE DETECTED IN GOES AND GROUND-BASED MAGNETOMETERS AT ABOUT
07/1750Z. THE FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED SINCE THE SHOCK.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 APR-10 APR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 APR 135
PREDICTED   08 APR-10 APR  138/140/142
90 DAY MEAN        07 APR 101
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR  010/008-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 APR-10 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05