:Product: 19980408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 098 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8195 (S27E38) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST OPTICALLY-CORRELATED FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C1/SF AT
08/1953Z. THIS ACTIVE REGION IS PART OF A COMPLEX THAT ALSO INCLUDES
SEC REGIONS 8194 (S19E36) AND 8198 (S28E60). THIS AREA HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE ROTATING INTO VIEW OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY REMAIN THE
8194/8195/8198 COMPLEX AND THE AREA COMPRISED OF REGIONS 8193
(S23W12) AND 8199 (S27W16).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 APR-11 APR
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 APR 141
PREDICTED   09 APR-11 APR  144/146/146
90 DAY MEAN        08 APR 101
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 APR-11 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05