:Product: 19980409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 099 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
HAVE OCCURRED. REGION 8194 (S18E24) PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF
THE DAY, A C5/1F AT 08/2138Z. THREE ACTIVE REGIONS WERE NEWLY
NUMBERED: 8200 (S21E06), 8201 (N19E62), AND 8202 (S21E56). REGION
8200 IS EMERGING RAPIDLY AND HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP
PENUMBRA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR FLARE ACTIVITY ARE
REGIONS 8194, 8195 (S27E27), 8198 (S28E49), AND 8200.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 APR-12 APR
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 APR 140
PREDICTED   10 APR-12 APR  140/140/138
90 DAY MEAN        09 APR 102
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR  005/010-005/010-010/013
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 APR-12 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05