:Product: 19980411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 101 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THREE SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST AN UNCORRELATED C3
FLARE AT 11/0912. REGION 8194 (S19W03) GENERATED THE ONLY CORRELATED
EVENT, A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/1513Z. ALL OF THE 7 ACTIVE REGIONS
CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE
YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 11/0900-1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 APR-14 APR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 APR 128
PREDICTED   12 APR-14 APR  128/126/126
90 DAY MEAN        11 APR   ???
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 APR  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 APR-14 APR  010/013-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 APR-14 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01