:Product: 19980414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 104 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. NEW
REGION 8203 (N30W12), A SIMPLE 2-SPOT 'AXX' GROUP, WAS NUMBERED
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT
14/1720Z, AND CONTINUED ABOVE THRESHOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF HE
REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 APR 112
PREDICTED   15 APR-17 APR  109/107/105
90 DAY MEAN        14 APR 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 APR  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 APR-17 APR  005/008-010/008-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01