:Product: 19980415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 105 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8203 (N31W24) GREW IN
WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA AND IS NOW A SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH
EMBEDDED ARCH-FILAMENTS. THE REGION PRODUCED A C8/SF AT 0746Z, A
C8/SF AT 1233Z, AND TOGETHER WITH REGION 8198 (S29W31), A C9 X-RAY
BURST AT 1511Z. FREQUENT DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE, WITH REGION 8203 THE MAIN ACTIVE CENTER.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 APR 113
PREDICTED   16 APR-18 APR  110/110/105
90 DAY MEAN        15 APR 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  010/008-015/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01