:Product: 19980416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 106 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8203 (N31W41) STABILIZED
DURING THE PERIOD AND WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF A C9 X-RAY BURST AT
0111Z. NEW REGION 8204 (S15E12) WAS BORN ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8203.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMANGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE INTERVAL, THEN QUIET BY 19
APRIL. A RECURRENT HIGH-SPEED STREAM SHOULD ELEVATE ACTIVITY TO A
SLIGHT DEGREE ON 17 APRIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 APR-19 APR
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 APR 106
PREDICTED   17 APR-19 APR  100/100/095
90 DAY MEAN        16 APR 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 APR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 APR  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 APR-19 APR  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 APR-19 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01