:Product: 19980417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 107 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8205 (N20E00)
EMERGED ON THE DISK. PROMINENCE AND SURGE ACTIVITY OCCURRED ON THE
SOUTHWEST LIMB AS REGION 8194 (S16W89) BEGAN TO DEPART. THERE ARE
SIGNS OF THE RETURN TO THE DISK OF OLD REGION 8185 (SE25), THE SITE
OF THREE M-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND
STREAM BROUGHT EPISODIC ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 APR-20 APR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 APR 101
PREDICTED   18 APR-20 APR  100/100/095
90 DAY MEAN        17 APR 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 APR  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR  015/015-010/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 APR-20 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01