:Product: 19980418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 108 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ON THE DISK AS MOST OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS EXPERIENCED A STEADY
DECLINE. REGION 8205 (N21W12) IS THE MOST PROMINENT, BUT HAS BEEN
UNPRODUCTIVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN CONTINUED LIMB
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE REGION 8195 (S27) IS NOW MAKING ITS
LIMB TRANSIT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 APR-21 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 APR 099
PREDICTED   19 APR-21 APR  095/095/095
90 DAY MEAN        18 APR 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 APR  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 APR-21 APR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 APR-21 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01