:Product: 19980419RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 109 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY TWO SPOTTED REGIONS
ARE VISIBLE. REGION 8205 (N21W25) EXHIBITED MODERATE GROWTH AND
LATEST OBSERVATORY REPORTS INDICATE IT IS NOW AN 18 SPOT DAO BETA
GROUP. SEVERAL PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND MINOR X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS
OCCURRED IN THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 8206 (N23E46) EMERGED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A THREE
SPOT SIMPLE BETA CONFIGURATION. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING A C-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET,
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 APR 096
PREDICTED   20 APR-22 APR  094/092/092
90 DAY MEAN        19 APR 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 APR  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 APR  003/002
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 APR-22 APR  005/008-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01