:Product: 19980426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 116 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8210 (S17E56), NOW
A CKO SPOT GROUP, MAINTAINED ITS SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND
WAS RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8210 STILL HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS
ACTIVITY, A SMALL CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARING.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM AT MID LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. SPACE-BASED SENSORS
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS CORONAL HOLE ASSOCIATED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. HIGH
LATITUDES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 APR-29 APR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 APR 091
PREDICTED   27 APR-29 APR  092/094/094
90 DAY MEAN        26 APR 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 APR  013/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 APR  020/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 APR-29 APR  010/018-010/015-005/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 APR-29 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05