:Product: 19980501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 121 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8214 (N26E34) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT
1300 UT. REGION 8214 IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WHITE LIGHT AND HAS
BECOME MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX (BETA-GAMMA). REGION 8210 (S17W09)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, AND HAS DEVELOPED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY
INCLUDING A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. NUMEROUS SMALL RADIO
BURSTS AND TYPE III SWEEPS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, BUT SATELLITE AND GROUND-BASED IMAGES IN
SEVERAL WAVELENGTHS INDICATE THAT ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING THE
POSSIBLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8194,  WILL SOON APPEAR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8210 AND 8214 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF M-CLASS OR
LARGER X-RAY FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 02 MAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF AN M6/HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON
29 APRIL. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 MAY-04 MAY
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 MAY 113
PREDICTED   02 MAY-04 MAY  120/130/140
90 DAY MEAN        01 MAY 104
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY  030/027-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 MAY-04 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/05
MINOR STORM           35/15/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/10/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/10
MINOR STORM           30/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/05/01