:Product: 19980510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 130 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED AT 10/0826UT.
NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8220 (S31E82) PRODUCED AN M3/SF FLARE AT
10/1320UT ACCOMPANIED BY A 300 SFU TENFLARE. A LOOP PROMINENCE
SYSTEM WAS OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THE FLARE AS WELL. THE REGION'S
LEADER SPOT BEGAN TO ROTATE INTO VIEW LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
APPEARED AS A MATURE H-, PERHAPS K-TYPE (DETAILS WERE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN DUE TO LIMB PROXIMITY). SPACE-BASED EUV AND X-RAY IMAGES
SHOWED A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
REGION. REGION 8214 (N26W84) WAS STABLE AS IT BEGAN TO CROSS THE
WEST LIMB. REGION 8218 (S20E22) REMAINED A STABLE E-TYPE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8220 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION
AS WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON FLUX REMAINED ENHANCED FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE, BUT
GRADUALLY DECLINED TOWARDS BACKGROUND LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 MAY 107
PREDICTED   11 MAY-13 MAY  108/108/108
90 DAY MEAN        10 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY  008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  012/010-012/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01