:Product: 19980511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 131 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. REGION 8220
(S26E68) WAS STABLE AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE INTO VIEW. REGION 8218
(S20E08) WAS STABLE AS WELL, AND PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A 21 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OVERNIGHT. IT WAS LAST SEEN CENTERED AT S33W44. NEW REGIONS
8221 (S09W46) AND 8222 (N20E68) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION
8220.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN
10 MEV PROTON FLUX RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAY 108
PREDICTED   12 MAY-14 MAY  108/108/106
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  007/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  012/012-010/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01