:Product: 19980512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 132 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAY 1998
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8218 (S20W05) PRODUCED A
C1 X-RAY FLARE AND A B6/SF EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE ACTIVITY DECLINED
TO VERY LOW LEVELS AFTER 12/0830UT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
C1 FLARE AT 12/1846UT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8218.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED TO CONSISTENT HIGH LEVELS AFTER 12/1400UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAY 112
PREDICTED   13 MAY-15 MAY  112/110/108
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY  008/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY  010/010-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01