:Product: 19980513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 133 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A C1/SF FLARE AT 13/1452Z
IN REGION 8218 (S20W18). THIS REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
YESTERDAY. REGION 8222 (N22E48) HAS GROWN IN SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER
BUT HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT FLARES. REGION 8220 (S28E46),
THE ONLY OTHER SUNSPOT GROUP OF NOTE, HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8218, 8220, AND 8222. THE
MOST LIKELY SOURCES OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY ARE REGIONS 8218
AND 8220; HOWEVER, THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAY 117
PREDICTED   14 MAY-16 MAY  120/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAY  017/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01