:Product: 19980514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 134 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8220 (S27E34) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C2/SF AT 14/1350Z. THIS REGION
HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8218 (S21W31) ALSO
PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY: A C1/SF AT 13/2225Z AND A C1/SF AT
14/1033Z. THIS REGION HAS ALSO DECAYED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY IN REGIONS 8218, 8220, AND 8222.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAY 117
PREDICTED   15 MAY-17 MAY  115/115/110
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAY 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01