:Product: 19980516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 136 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8218 (S21W57) PRODUCED A
C2/SF FLARE AT 16/0157Z. REGION 8222 (N22E22) ALSO PRODUCED SMALL
FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE IN REGION 8218.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 MAY 118
PREDICTED   17 MAY-19 MAY  120/118/115
90 DAY MEAN        16 MAY 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  010/010-005/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01