:Product: 19980517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 137 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. ALL
THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8218 (S20W70),
8220 (S27W07), AND 8222 (N23W04), HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH C-CLASS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM EITHER REGION 8218 OR 8222.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAY-20 MAY
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAY 110
PREDICTED   18 MAY-20 MAY  108/105/100
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAY 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY  010(ESTIMATED)/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY  010/015-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAY-20 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01