:Product: 19980518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 138 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW, AS NO FLARES OCCURRED FOR
A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.  THE THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE
VISIBLE DISK, 8218 (S20W81), 8220 (S27W18), AND 8222 (N23W17),
REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW, WITH THE CHANCE FOR MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION
8222 (N23W17).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED
AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 18/1200-1500Z. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 MAY-21 MAY
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 MAY 102
PREDICTED   19 MAY-21 MAY  098/095/098
90 DAY MEAN        18 MAY 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAY  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY  005/010-005/010-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 MAY-21 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/02