:Product: 19980519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 139 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN UNCORRELATED C4 X-RAY EVENT
OCCURRED AT 19/0802Z, WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY A C3 ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
ON LIMB FROM DEPARTING REGION 8218 (S18W90) AT 19/1605Z. TWO NEW
SMALL B-TYPE REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8223 (S16W53) AND 8224
(S35E01). THE LARGEST REGION CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8222
(N24W31), REMAINED STABLE AS A 17-SPOT 'CAI' BETA GROUP. A 17 DEGREE
LONG BY 6 DEGREE WIDE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT AT APPROXIMATELY 19/0953Z, WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AN
IMPORTANCE THREE TYPE II RADIO SWEEP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT VERY LOW TO LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO
HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 MAY-22 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 MAY 099
PREDICTED   20 MAY-22 MAY  096/098/100
90 DAY MEAN        19 MAY 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAY  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAY-22 MAY  005/008-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 MAY-22 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01