:Product: 19980521RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 141 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY TWO SPOTTED REGIONS,
8220 (S26W60) AND 8222 (N23W52) ARE VISIBLE ON A VERY QUIET DISK. NO
CME OR FLARE ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS
OCCURRED IN LOCAL MIDNIGHT SECTORS. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. STRICTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE LAST
2 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 MAY-24 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 MAY 089
PREDICTED   22 MAY-24 MAY  087/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        21 MAY 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAY  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAY  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAY-24 MAY  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 MAY-24 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05