:Product: 19980522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 142 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE
OCCURRED AS THE TWO ASSIGNED SPOTTED REGIONS, 8220 (S24W72) AND 8222
(N24W64) CONTINUED THEIR SLOW DECAY. THERE ARE PRELIMINARY REPORTS
OF SPOTS NEAR S18E74, MARKING THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8210 (S17,
L-136). THAT REGION PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY (X-CLASS FLARES,
PROTON EVENTS) LAST ROTATION. ITS RETURN TO THE DISK WAS QUIET AND
UNEVENTFUL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AGAIN AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 MAY-25 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 MAY 087
PREDICTED   23 MAY-25 MAY  085/085/090
90 DAY MEAN        22 MAY 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY  14 (EST.)/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY  010/010-010/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 MAY-25 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01