:Product: 19980523RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 143 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. HOWEVER, TWO NEW REGIONS,
8225 (S18E62) AND 8226 (N17W12) WERE ASSIGNED. REGION 8225 IS THE
SEEMINGLY BENIGN RETURN OF OLD ERUPTIVE REGION 8210. IT IS SIMPLE IN
WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. IN CONTRAST, REGION 8226, BORN ON THE DISK
EARLY TODAY, HAS QUICKLY GROWN TO NOW SHOW PENUMBRA ON BOTH THE
LEADER AND TRAILER SPOTS. STRONG ARCH-FILAMENTS AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF BRIGHT PLAGE ARE VISIBLE THERE. SOME SURGING WAS NOTED WITH THE
LIMB TRANSIT OF REGION 8222 (N24W77).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8226 MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND
QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 MAY-26 MAY
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 MAY 090
PREDICTED   24 MAY-26 MAY  095/095/100
90 DAY MEAN        23 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY  010/015-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 MAY-26 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01