:Product: 19980524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 144 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY FLARE
OCCURRED AT 0807Z, ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER REGION 8226 (N18W28) OR
REGION 8222 (N24W90). SURGING OCCURRED WITH THE LIMB TRANSIT OF 8222
MUCH OF THE DAY, INCLUDING A PARTICULARLY INTENSE OCCURRENCE NEAR
THE TIME OF THE X-RAY BURST. REGION 8226 CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE
LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, AND NOW NUMBERS APPROXIMATELY 20 SPOTS AND A
FIELD OF BRIGHT PLAGE. IT HAD A SF FLARE AT 0733Z, JUST PRIOR TO THE
C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND
QUIET TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. BRIEF SUBSTORMING OCCURRED
DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SUBSTORMS MAY PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 MAY-27 MAY
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 MAY 096
PREDICTED   25 MAY-27 MAY  100/100/105
90 DAY MEAN        24 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY  008/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY  010/015-005/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 MAY-27 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01