:Product: 19980525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 145 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED,
B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED. REGION 8226 (N18W38) STABILIZED AS A
SMALL D-TYPE GROUP WITH MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AFTER TWO DAYS OF
GRADUAL GROWTH . OLD REGION 8214 MADE AN UNEVENTFUL RETURN TO THE
VISIBLE DISK AND WAS ASSIGNED SWO NUMBER 8227 (N25E73).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8226 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT ALL
LATITUDES. BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS ALSO OCCURRED AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTIMES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 MAY-28 MAY
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 MAY 092
PREDICTED   26 MAY-28 MAY  094/094/096
90 DAY MEAN        25 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 MAY  015/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAY  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAY-28 MAY  010/010-007/008-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 MAY-28 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01