:Product: 19980526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 146 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8226 (N18W52), THE
LARGEST VISIBLE REGION ON THE SUN, PRODUCED A C1/1F FLARE AT
26/2035Z. THIS REGION UNDERWENT VERY LITTLE CHANGE SINCE STABILIZING
YESTERDAY AS A 14 SPOT 'DKO' GROUP. REGION 8224 (S31W88) HEATED UP
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT NEARED THE WEST LIMB. PLAGE AREA HAS
EXPANDED WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS OBSERVED. REGION 8227 (N24E61)
REMAINS UNEVENTFUL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. BOTH REGIONS 8226 AND 8227 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 MAY 093
PREDICTED   27 MAY-29 MAY  094/096/096
90 DAY MEAN        26 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAY  010/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAY  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAY-29 MAY  007/012-007/010-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01