:Product: 19980529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 149 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8226 (N18W94) PRODUCED
A M6.7/SF AT 29/0059Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. REGION 8226 HAS ROTATED OVER THE WESTERN
LIMB AT THIS TIME. 2 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: FORMER REGION SN55
(S22W13) IS NOW 8228 AND FORMER REGION SN53 (S18E11) IS NOW 8229.
BOTH REGIONS CONTAIN 2-SPOT "BXO-BETA" SPOT GROUPS. REGION 8227
CONTAINS A 5-SPOT "HAX" GROUP AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
AS REGION 8226 CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE LIMB. ISOLATED C-FLARES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM  8227.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY
29/1600Z. AT THAT TIME A MAJOR STORM DEVELOPED. THIS WAS MOST LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE EFFECT OF A LONG DURATION C7 X-RAY AND CORRESPONDING
CME THAT OCCURRED ON 27/1335Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 MAY 095
PREDICTED   30 MAY-01 JUN  096/096/096
90 DAY MEAN        29 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAY  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAY  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAY-01 JUN  018/018-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/45/30
MINOR STORM           25/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05