:Product: 19980530RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 150 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. 2 C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED EARLY
IN THE PERIOD, AT 30/2119Z AND 2340Z. 2 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
RGN 8031 (S21E33) WITH A "BXO-BETA" SPOT GROUP AND RGN 8030 (S19E60)
WITH A "CSO-BETA" SPOT GROUP. RGN 8030 PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 30/2340Z.
RGN 8227 IS SHOWING A 6-SPOT "CAO-BETA" SPOT GROUP AND VERY LITTLE
REPORTED ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8227 AND 8230.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORMS LEVELS. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV FLUX HAS SHOWN STEADY ENHANCEMENT DURING THE DAY AND HAS
REMAINED AT NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS SINCE APPROXIMATELY 30/1900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 MAY-02 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 MAY 096
PREDICTED   31 MAY-02 JUN  096/096/096
90 DAY MEAN        30 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY  021/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY  022/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN  015/015-010/013-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 MAY-02 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01