:Product: 19980531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 151 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 MAY 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A SINGLE C-CLASS FLARE
OCCURRED TODAY; A C2 AT 31/0515Z. REGION 8227 (N26W04) HAS SHOWN
LITTLE CHANGE OR ACTIVITY. REGION 8230 (S20E48) PRODUCED A B4/SF AT
31/1805Z AND HAS INCREASED ITS SPOT COUNT FROM 7 TO 13 IN A
"DSO-BETA" GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8230.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV FLUX
APPROACHED NEAR THRESHOLD LEVEL (1000PFU) AT 31/2000Z AND HAS
REMAINED THERE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 MAY 094
PREDICTED   01 JUN-03 JUN  096/096/098
90 DAY MEAN        31 MAY 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY  020/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN  007/010-007/010-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01