:Product: 19980602RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 153 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8230 (S19E24) GREW AT A MODERATE
PACE. NEW REGION 8232 (S19E74) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK. A MODERATE
SIZE CLASS H SPOT WAS VISIBLE HERE AND TRAILER SPOTS MAY FOLLOW.
THIS REGION IS THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8213 THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL
C-CLASS FLARES AND ONE M-CLASS FLARE LAST ROTATION. A LARGE
PROMINENCE NEAR SW50 ERUPTED SHORTLY BEFORE 02/1500Z AND CREATED A
LARGE AND DENSE CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT APPEARED TO PROPAGATE
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW.
REGION 8230 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS DURING
THIS GROWTH PHASE. NEW REGION 8232 IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
LIMB PROXIMITY OF THIS REGION HINDERS ACCURATE ANALYSIS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN THE PERIOD AT HIGH LEVELS BUT
DECREASED QUICKLY TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JUN 105
PREDICTED   03 JUN-05 JUN  108/112/114
90 DAY MEAN        02 JUN 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN  007/008-007/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01