:Product: 19980603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 154 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED,
MODERATE DURATION C1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/0303Z. REGION 8232
(S19E63) SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE C GROUP WITH DIFFUSE
PLAGE. REGION 8230 (S20E10) STABILIZED. NEW REGION 8233 (N28E64)
EMERGED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED FREQUENT SUBFLARES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL LARGE FILAMENTS ARE VISIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND
TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8230,
8232, AND 8233.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED DURING THE PERIOD FROM APPROXIMATELY 400 KM/S TO OVER 500
KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 05-06 JUN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUN 113
PREDICTED   04 JUN-06 JUN  119/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUN 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05