:Product: 19980604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 155 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/2308Z AND REGION 8232 (S19E50) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 04/2039Z.  REGIONS 8232 AND 8233 (N28E49) BOTH PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. MAGNETICALLY, REGION 8232
SHOWED SEVERAL ISOLATED POLES INDICATING SOME MIXING OF POLARITIES
BUT OVERALL THE REGION WAS STABLE. THE RATE OF EMERGENCE OF REGION
8233 SLOWED. A SMALL NEW REGION EMERGED NEAR N16E66 AND WAS NUMBERED
AS REGION 8234. BETWEEN 03/2130-2257Z, A REPORT WAS RECEIVED OF A
LARGE DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S40E70. NO CME WAS OBSERVED
COINCIDENT WITH THIS EVENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8232 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES AND IS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE APPROACHING HIGH LEVELS
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 05-06 JUN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUN-07 JUN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JUN 112
PREDICTED   05 JUN-07 JUN  113/114/112
90 DAY MEAN        04 JUN 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUN  012(EST.)/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUN-07 JUN  010/014-010/012-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUN-07 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05