:Product: 19980605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 156 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8232 (S18E34) PRODUCED A
HANDFUL OF C1/SF FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS REGION IS NOW
MAGNETICALLY CLASSIFIED AS A BETA-GAMMA. REGION 8033 (N28E36)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL SUBFLARES. THREE MODERATE SIZE FILAMENTS IN
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE FADED OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS
BEGINNING EARLY ON 05 JUN. AN EXTENSIVE POST-ERUPTION ARCADE WAS
OBSERVED IN BOTH EUV AND X-RAYS FOLLOWING THE FILAMENT DISRUPTIONS.
A CME FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WAS ALSO OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY
HOURS OF 05 JUN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8232 MAINTAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
WERE UNDER 400 KM/S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. A VERY WEAK
ENHANCEMENT OF THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX BEGAN NEAR 04/2000Z AND
RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 09 JUN IN RESPONSE TO THE FILAMENT
DISRUPTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JUN 115
PREDICTED   06 JUN-08 JUN  115/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        05 JUN 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN  007/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN  008/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN  010/012-007/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JUN-08 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05