:Product: 19980606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 157 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED, REGION 3235 (N20W33) IS A SMALL BXO SPOT GROUP AND REGION
8236 (N21W10) IS A DEVELOPING DSO GROUP.  ALL OTHER REGIONS ARE
STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C CLASS FLARES, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR M CLASS, ARE EXPECTED
FROM REGION 8232 (S19E19).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING ON 8 JUN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JUN 115
PREDICTED   07 JUN-09 JUN  115/115/118
90 DAY MEAN        06 JUN 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN  007/010-010/010-018/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JUN-09 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/06
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/06