:Product: 19980608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 159 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE DAY
WAS A C5/2N FROM REGION 8232 (S22W03) AT 08/1556UT.  THIS EVENT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR RADIO EMISSIONS AND A PARTIAL HALO CME MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED NEAR S18W18 BEFORE
07/0358UT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY REDEVELOPING.  PORTIONS OF THE
FILAMENT NEAR N19W63 DISAPPEARED AFTER 07/1714UT.  TWO BXO SPOT
GROUPS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8238 (S19E06) IN THE TRAILING
SECTION OF REGION 8232 AND REGION 8239 (N21E59).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
ISOLATED C CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX EXCEEDED EVENT
THRESHOLDS AT 08/0836UT AND REMAINS ELEVATED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THE FIELD SHOULD
RETURN TO GENERALLY UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUN 117
PREDICTED   09 JUN-11 JUN  117/117/116
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUN 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN  019/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN  012/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN  018/018-012/015-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JUN-11 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/10
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    06/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    06/06/01