:Product: 19980609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 160 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  ALL VISIBLE REGIONS
APPEARED STABLE OR DECLINING.  TWO SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY, REGION 8240 (S24W44) AND REGION 8241 (S27E17).  A  PARTIAL
HALO CME WAS OBSERVED AT 09/0627UT.  MATERIAL WAS SEEN MOVING MOSTLY
TO THE SW.  THIS EVENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN DURING THIS PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO VERY LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  LEVELS MAY INCREASE ON 12 JUN
WHEN OLD REGION 8226 (N12,  L-210) IS DUE TO RETURN.  REGION 8226
APPEARED TO BE GROWING AND PRODUCED MAJOR FLARES AS IT CROSSED WEST
LIMB ON 29 MAY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 2MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON 12 JUN IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 8
JUN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUN-12 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUN 112
PREDICTED   10 JUN-12 JUN  112/112/115
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUN 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUN  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUN-12 JUN  012/012-007/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUN-12 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/20
MINOR STORM           15/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/30
MINOR STORM           15/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/05