:Product: 19980610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 161 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C1 X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED AT
10/0223 AND 10/0402UT RESPECTIVELY. REGIONS 8240 (S28W55) AND 8241
(S24E06) SHOWED SOME MINOR GROWTH IN PLAGE AREA AND SPOT COUNT. THE
REST OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS REMAINED STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. LEVELS MAY INCREASE ON 12 JUN WHEN OLD REGION 8226 (N18, L-210)
IS DUE TO RETURN. REGION 8226 PRODUCED MAJOR FLARES AND APPEARED TO
BE GROWING IN SIZE AND INTENSITY WHEN IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB ON 29
MAY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN THE PERIOD AT HIGH
LEVELS AND THEN DECREASED TO BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS AT 10/1000UT.
THEY HAVE REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON 12 JUN DUE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 8 JUN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUN 112
PREDICTED   11 JUN-13 JUN  112/115/120
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUN 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUN  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUN  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUN-13 JUN  007/008-010/010-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01