:Product: 19980611RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 162 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW TO MODERATE. A LONG DURATION C1
X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 11/0014UT AND A LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT
OCCURRED AT 11/1027UT. BOTH ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM THE
NE LIMB IN CONJUNCTION WITH X-RAY LOOPS VISIBLE IN THE LASCO/EIT
IMAGES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ON 12 JUN WHEN OLD
REGION 8226 (N18 L-210) IS DUE TO RETURN. THAT REGION COULD POSSIBLY
BE THE SOURCE OF THE X-RAY LOOPS ON THE NE LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ONLY ONE ACTIVE PERIOD
(K=4) OCCURRING 10/2100-2400UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUN-14 JUN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JUN 112
PREDICTED   12 JUN-14 JUN  115/120/122
90 DAY MEAN        11 JUN 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN  016/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN  010/010-010/008-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JUN-14 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01