:Product: 19980612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 163 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8240 (S24W82) PRODUCED
MOST OF TODAY'S OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION SHOWED BRIGHT
H-ALPHA PLAGE AND SOME INDICATIONS OF GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. NEW REGION 8243 (N18E75) ROTATED PARTIALLY INTO VIEW TODAY AS
A SINGLE SPOT WITH PENUMBRA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8240 OR 8243.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF
SUBSTORM PERIOD FROM 04-06Z. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY FROM 04-06Z
RESULTED IN ACTIVE LEVELS AT MID-LATITUDE AND MINOR STORM LEVELS AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JUN-15 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JUN 112
PREDICTED   13 JUN-15 JUN  110/110/115
90 DAY MEAN        12 JUN 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN  010/010-005/012-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JUN-15 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05