:Product: 19980614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 165 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8242
(S21E28) PRODUCED ISOLATED B- AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. NO REMARKABLE
GROWTH OR DECAY OCCURRED IN ANY OF THE SPOTTED REGIONS. NEW REGION
8248 (N21E02) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8242, 8243 (N18E51), AND 8247 (S23E17) MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8242 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH
14/0300UT. FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
DURING 14/0400 - 0600UT, THEN DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JUN-17 JUN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JUN 102
PREDICTED   15 JUN-17 JUN  098/096/094
90 DAY MEAN        14 JUN 110
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUN  015/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUN-17 JUN  005/010-005/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JUN-17 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/35
MINOR STORM           05/05/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01