:Product: 19980615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 166 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
EXTENDING TO 0.31 SOLAR RADII OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB AROUND
15/0600UT. A LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY FLARE (15/0600-0937UT) AND
CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) ACCOMPANIED THE ERUPTION. THE CME DID
NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. A 36-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT DURING 15/1314-1420UT. THIS LARGE,
NORTH-SOUTH ALLIGNED FILAMENT WAS LAST SEEN CENTERED NEAR S62E17.
NEW REGION 8249 (S27E74) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8242 (S21E16), 8243 (N17E39), AND 8244 (N34E03) APPEAR
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. HOWEVER, ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FINAL TWO DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUN-18 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUN 100
PREDICTED   16 JUN-18 JUN  100/100/098
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUN 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUN  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUN  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUN-18 JUN  005/010-010/012-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JUN-18 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/35/30
MINOR STORM           05/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01