:Product: 19980616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 167 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. A
LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 16/1842UT. A POST-FLARE
LOOP-PROMINENCE SYSTEM WAS VISIBLE BEYOND THE WEST LIMB SHORTLY
AFTER THE FLARE NEAR OLD REGION 8232, NOW ALMOST TWO DAYS BEYOND THE
LIMB. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE, BUT DID
NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH DIRECTED. ALL VISIBLE SPOT GROUPS WERE QUIET
AND STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUN 104
PREDICTED   17 JUN-19 JUN  102/102/102
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUN 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN  010/012-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01