:Product: 19980617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 168 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. ALL SPOTTED
REGIONS APPEARED SIMPLE AND STABLE. A SINGLE B-CLASS SUBFLARE
OCCURRED. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF SPACE-BASED CORONAL IMAGES REVEALED A
PARTIAL-HALO CME FOLLOWED THE LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE MENTIONED
IN YESTERDAY'S REPORT. HOWEVER, THE CME DID NOT APPEAR TO BE
EARTH-DIRECTED. NEW REGION 8250 (S26E03) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S LONG-DURATION M1 X-RAY FLARE.
THE ENHANCEMENT BEGAN AROUND 16/2300, PEAKED NEAR MID-PERIOD, THEN
GRADUALLY DECLINED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX  IS
EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO PRE-ENHANCEMENT LEVELS ON 18 JUNE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JUN-20 JUN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JUN 101
PREDICTED   18 JUN-20 JUN  100/100/100
90 DAY MEAN        17 JUN 109
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN  012/012-015/012-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JUN-20 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/35
MINOR STORM           20/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01