:Product: 19980619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 170 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8243 (N18W16)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A B2/SF AT
19/0045Z. REGION 8249 (S27E22) GENERATED A LONG-DURATION B8/SF
PEAKING AT 19/0711Z. NEW REGION 8251 (N16W24) IS EMERGING TO THE
WEST OF 8243.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW. ADDITIONAL SMALL FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8243.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
CLASS M    05/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JUN 099
PREDICTED   20 JUN-22 JUN  100/100/098
90 DAY MEAN        19 JUN 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN  015/012-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JUN-22 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01