:Product: 19980620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 171 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8243 (N18W25) PRODUCED A
C4/1N FLARE AT 20/1430Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II/IV
RADIO SWEEP AND A DECAMETRIC BURST ACROSS THE SPECTRUM (59 SFU AT
2695 MHZ). NEW REGION 8252 (S29W03) WAS NUMBERED. OTHER REGIONS WERE
QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ANOTHER C-CLASS FLARE IS PROBABLE IN REGION 8243. AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JUN-23 JUN
CLASS M    10/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JUN 101
PREDICTED   21 JUN-23 JUN  102/104/106
90 DAY MEAN        20 JUN 108
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUN  016/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUN-23 JUN  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JUN-23 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01