:Product: 19980621RSGA.txt :Issued: 1998 Jun 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 172 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JUN 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8243 (N17W38) CONTINUED TO GENERATE SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C3/SF AT 20/2210Z. GROWTH IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING. OTHER REGIONS WERE QUIET. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN REGION 8243. A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE REMAINS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE AFTER 21/1500Z. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN CLASS M 10/05/05 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 21 JUN 102 PREDICTED 22 JUN-24 JUN 104/106/106 90 DAY MEAN 21 JUN 108 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUN 008/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUN 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUN-24 JUN 015/010-015/008-010/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/25/25 MINOR STORM 15/15/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/25/25 MINOR STORM 15/15/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01