:Product: 19980622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 173 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8243 (N17W51) GENERATED
A C2/SF FLARE WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AT
22/0443Z. THE REGION HAS BEEN STABLE SINCE, AND IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A 15-SPOT 'DHO' BETA GROUP. NEW REGION 8253 (N18E76),
A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW, WITH REGION 8243 STILL CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS BRIEFLY IN THE HIGH RANGE
DURING THE INTERVAL 22/1830-2000Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUN-25 JUN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUN 101
PREDICTED   23 JUN-25 JUN  101/102/104
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUN 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUN  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUN-25 JUN  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JUN-25 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01