:Product: 19980624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 175 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY THREE SPOTTED REGIONS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE DISC WITH MOST ACTIVITY COMING FROM REGION 8253
(N18E54). THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL B AND C-CLASS EVENTS WITH
CORRESPONDING OPTICAL SUB FLARES. THE REST OF THE DISK HAS BEEN
STABLE AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS FROM REGION 8253.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ONE PERIOD OF
MINOR STORM LEVEL ACTIVITY (K=5) OCCURRING AT 23/2100-2400UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUN 105
PREDICTED   25 JUN-27 JUN  100/100/100
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUN 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUN  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUN  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUN-27 JUN  010/015-010/015-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01