:Product: 19980626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 177 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 JUN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C6/SF AT 25/2107Z FROM REGION
8253 (N17E26) WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF AN OTHERWISE QUIET DAY. TWO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, 8257 (N29W19) AND 8258 (S14E64), MAKING A
TOTAL OF SIX SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS SEEN TO PASS THE ACE
SPACECRAFT BEGINNING AT APPROXIMATELY 25/1600Z. THE LATTER HALF OF
THE EVENT EXHIBITED STRONG, PROLONGED, SOUTHWARD MAGNETIC FIELDS
FROM 25/2200Z TO 26/0600Z. THE SOLAR SOURCE OF THIS EJECTA IS LIKELY
EITHER FROM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON JUNE 20, OR JUNE 22. THE
DISTURBANCE WEAKENEND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, GIVING
WAY TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED, WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE
INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 JUN-29 JUN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 JUN 109
PREDICTED   27 JUN-29 JUN  110/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        26 JUN 107
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN  035/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN  015/015-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 JUN-29 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/25/20
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01